Want a simple global Swine Flu Counter on your web page?
You may find the old (July 6, 2009) Counter/Calculator Here.
There is already a new counter on a more recent model available.
Look at : Swine Flu Counter Update-sept-2009
The (old) counter is based on a 'July 6, 2009 estimation' as described on Actuary-Info. However, now the data have been updated based on the official, more reliable and accurate WHO reports.
If necessary, counters will be updated again on a on a regular basis. The latest data you'll find in this XLS spreadsheet.
Install Swine Flu Counter
How to implement this old Swine Flu Counter on your web site?
Remember, you may only install one counter on your website, either the old or the new.
The best what could and will happen with regard to the original swine flu model and corresponding counter, is that they don't turn out to be valid. This way the model and counter will have proven their 'reason for existence'. Simply just by contributing to the necessary awareness and prevention measures to diminish or stop the exponential swine flu infections growth.
Contrary, developing but not publishing models or counters will create a lack of warning and attention and would therefore prove the (exponential) model to become true. This is the inevitable paradox of modeling with our without follow up actions.
This paradox is the main reason why an 'actuarial advice' should therefore alway be presented in a (minimal) "two-way scenario" form:
Anyway, have fun with your Swine Flu Counter!
Joshua Maggid
ADD July 18, 2009
On July 16, 2009 WHO reports:
Let's see if we can find another source....
ADD July 21, 2009
Wikipedia's 2009 flu pandemic reports (based on ECDC reports, as WHO reports fail) an accumulated number of 143,652 reported infections and 899 deaths on July 21, 2009. As the WHO has decided not to registrate the number of infections anymore (as from july 9) and, except for the US, reports are based on confirmed laboratory test results, the actual number of infections will be much higher.
That's why, as long as the actual deaths are in line with the modelled estimated death, the 'July 6th exponential model', used as basis for the swine flu counter, seems still realistic and valid!
ADD Sept 06, 2009
The data have structurally changed from exponential to linear.
Take a look at the new counter at:
You may find the old (July 6, 2009) Counter/Calculator Here.
There is already a new counter on a more recent model available.
Look at : Swine Flu Counter Update-sept-2009
The (old) counter is based on a 'July 6, 2009 estimation' as described on Actuary-Info. However, now the data have been updated based on the official, more reliable and accurate WHO reports.
If necessary, counters will be updated again on a on a regular basis. The latest data you'll find in this XLS spreadsheet.
Install Swine Flu Counter
How to implement this old Swine Flu Counter on your web site?
- Put the next HTML-script (without the outer quotes) just before the end of the body tag:' <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://jos.blogspot.googlepages.com/swine-flu-2009.js"> </script>'
- Put the next HTML-line (without the outer quotes) where you want the Swine Flu table to appear on your site :
' <div id="swineflutable"></div> ' - Ready!
Remember, you may only install one counter on your website, either the old or the new.
The best what could and will happen with regard to the original swine flu model and corresponding counter, is that they don't turn out to be valid. This way the model and counter will have proven their 'reason for existence'. Simply just by contributing to the necessary awareness and prevention measures to diminish or stop the exponential swine flu infections growth.
Contrary, developing but not publishing models or counters will create a lack of warning and attention and would therefore prove the (exponential) model to become true. This is the inevitable paradox of modeling with our without follow up actions.
This paradox is the main reason why an 'actuarial advice' should therefore alway be presented in a (minimal) "two-way scenario" form:
- Estimation of results without follow up actions
- Estimation of results including advised follow up actions
Anyway, have fun with your Swine Flu Counter!
Joshua Maggid
ADD July 18, 2009
On July 16, 2009 WHO reports:
- Further spread of the pandemic, within affected countries and to new countries, is considered inevitable.
- This assumption is fully backed by experience. The 2009 influenza pandemic has spread internationally with unprecedented speed. In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks.
- The increasing number of cases in many countries with sustained community transmission is making it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for countries to try and confirm them through laboratory testing. Moreover, the counting of individual cases is now no longer essential in such countries for monitoring either the level or nature of the risk posed by the pandemic virus or to guide implementation of the most appropriate response measures.
Let's see if we can find another source....
ADD July 21, 2009
Wikipedia's 2009 flu pandemic reports (based on ECDC reports, as WHO reports fail) an accumulated number of 143,652 reported infections and 899 deaths on July 21, 2009. As the WHO has decided not to registrate the number of infections anymore (as from july 9) and, except for the US, reports are based on confirmed laboratory test results, the actual number of infections will be much higher.
That's why, as long as the actual deaths are in line with the modelled estimated death, the 'July 6th exponential model', used as basis for the swine flu counter, seems still realistic and valid!
ADD Sept 06, 2009
The data have structurally changed from exponential to linear.
Take a look at the new counter at:
Posts
LinkedIn Actuary-Info Group
What a nonsense...
ReplyDeleteYes indeed : "nonsense".
ReplyDeleteSense of duty
Sometimes it makes sense to create nonsense in order to let insensitive people take sensible decisions.
Light on the hill
As with everything (including ourselves)in life: there are no permanent truths and we can only create temporary sense.
Until prevention measures will be effective, the reality of infections will stay in line with the exponential model as presented by the Swin Flu Counter.
After prevention measures have become effective, the model will have fulfilled his mission and can be qualified as trash-ready nonsense.
Until then, as men of sense, let's use our common sense and sense of humor.....
I hope I was able to give you the 'sense' of the blog.....
Nonsenserely yours,
Joshua Maggid
Good day !.
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