Showing posts with label survivor bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label survivor bias. Show all posts

May 19, 2012

Risk Manager Test

Risk Manager is THE profession of the future.

For all (young) actuaries, econometricians and other talented whizzkids who are considering to become a Risk Manager, here's the ultimate test...

Find out if you really have more risk management talent than an average Duck Risk Manager.

Perhaps even some more experienced Risk Managers dare to risk their reputation by taking the test as well........ 

Risk Manager Test 
Imagine you're a risk manager during World War II...

Allied pilots are bombing targets in Germany. Most bomber airplanes come back with heavy damage, some even don't come back at all. Therefore it is considered important to protect bombers with extra armor.

As there is only very limited supply of retrofitting armor, you as a risk manager are hired to determine where this extra armor is best placed on a plane.

In order to find out the vulnerable parts of the plane, you mark every bullet hole of every plane that comes back from a bombing mission as a red dot on a plane-bullet-hole diagram.

After having observed more than 50 planes coming back, you end up with the next diagram:

Please point out in detail the most important places where you as a risk manager, would put the armor on the plane.


To find Out if you passed the Risk Manager Qualification Test please press on the answer button.


The risk manager in this test actually exists. During WWII, the Hungarian-born mathematician Abraham Wald undertook a study with the British Air Ministry to use statistical analysis to help protect bombers flying over enemy territory. The data to be crunched included the number and location of bullet holes on returning aircraft, and the goal was to use this information to determine where to best add armor to the plane's structure.

Sources & Related Links
- Abraham Wald : original Report
- Abraham Wald's Work on Aircraft Survivability by Marc Mangel 
- The hole story: What you don't see will kill you 
- UK Bombers in WWII (pictures)