World Roulette

This decade of quantum reality and quantum risk must have been foreseen by Charles Dickens:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

Charles Dickens,
English novelist (1812 - 1870), A Tale of Two Cities

Applying Dickens' wisdom to Europe: Europe will break up, Europe will survive.......    Who knows?

Let's dive a little deeper to find out what's happening.

Different interests
First of all different countries in Europe have different interests in the outcome of this debt crisis as the next charts (2010 data) of the Telegraph (nov 2011) show:


Update
It's hard to get actual data on this subject (how about transparency?), however the 'Deutsche Bundesbank' opens up a bit, as the next table shows:

This table (3) clearly shows that Germany is increasingly funding the poor (default) positions of a number of countries.

Countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain are in an extremely difficult and hopeless position.

Even France is 'on the wrong side' and moving in the wrong direction.....

As long as these bad performing countries are not showing any progress in getting their national finance under control and diminishing their debt, other countries like Germany, Luxembourg and The Netherlands are  throwing the money of their citizens into the bottomless pit of countries that can't take care of themselves.

As long as Europe cannot force individual member states to take appropriate measures, it's on a on a collision course and will eventually default.

For years now, Germany is putting a lot of energy and - even more - financial support in keeping Europe alive.

Despite this laudable way of acting, it's clear that if other countries don't catch up, the end of Europe is in sight.

The most horrible scenario is of course: a major (hyper)inflation in Europe.

Therefore, Germany, Luxembourg and The Netherlands would be wise to finance other countries only on basis of inflation-indexed-loans.

This way countries can't escape by means of (stimulated)  inflation.

Different types of roulette
The situation above is like a desperate German player in a casino in a lonely town.......

His European family lost a fortune that night....

In order to 'save' his family, he takes his 'responsibility' and decides to play 'double or nothing' by putting all his money on 'red' and hope for the best.

Meanwhile, his family continues to gamble on the other casino  tables, as if nothing has happened.

As Germans can calculate like no other, our Bundes-player knows he eventually can not win at roulette. But he has to play to prevent a family default.

Unfortunately, the German player doesn't realize he's not playing 'normal' European roulette, based on one green pocket.......

NO.., it's getting worse.......

Our German player is not even playing American roulette, with two green pockets and (therefore) less chance of winning.....

In fact our unlucky German friend is playing a kind of 'World roulette'..... as this inevitable European Debt Game will infect the world economy....

In 'economic practice' the situation is more risky than at the roulette table, as with roulette you can exactly calculate your probabilities, while in 'real life' you are not sure of your probabilities.

That's what Risk Management is all about, isn't it?

Keep following Europe the next months, as this story will continue.....



Next blog.... better news! 

Sources/Related Links:
- DBB:Euroland's hidden balance-of-payments crisis
- Bundesbank sinks deeper into debt saving Europe

- Bank exposure data (Bank for International Settlements, table 9D)
- Debt as percentage of GDP and total debt (Eurostat).
- ECB Stats

Interactive Map Charts

Remarkably interesting interactive charts at Chartsbin.

Just some examples:

- Press on 'Key' to toggle descrition square
- Press on Big Screen to view more details

1. Current World Life Expectancy at Birth

via chartsbin.com

2.Body Mass Index (BMI) by Country


via chartsbin.com


Want more chart examples with dropdown-menus for non-IE-users...?

Click Here

It's also possible to
- Embed Chartsbin charts in your Powerpoint presentation!
- Search voor Chartsbin charts

Enjoy!

Pensionpoly

Brainteaser...... What skills do you need to manage a pension fund?

Whatever brilliant your answer, I'm sure that the 'art of playing Monopoly' wasn't a part of it.

Yet, playing Monopoly and managing a pension fund  [ let's call it Pensionpoly] have a lot in common nowadays.

The main difference is that with Monopoly you can actually calculate the probability you land on one of the forty squares, while in Pensionpoly you THINK you can calculate the probability of the return of a certain asset class.

The similarities between Monopoly and Pensionpoly are that while executing a certain buying strategy (whether houses, hotels, stocks, bonds  or other asset classes), the  - short term - outcome also depends on the (financial) effects of the squares we land on and on a number of uncertain events as a result of drawing  Chance and Community Chest cards.

Monopoly probabilities
As described by Jörg Bewersdorff, the probability of landing on a particular square, basically can be calculated either on basis of Markov Chains or by means of applying the famous Monte Carlo method.

As an example here's the outcome of lending on a particular square on basis of a Monte Carlo simulation (more than 60.000 observations).

What's striking is that there's a 9.3% chance of ending up in jail.....

Of course, playing Monopoly takes a lot more than just calculating the probability on which square you'll be landing. Some excellent calculations have been made by Truman Collins (2005) , that include:

• Long term probabilities for ending up on each of the squares
• Expected income per opponent roll on all properties and other squares
• Expected number of opponent rolls to lose or recoup mortgages

Pensionpoly
Back to Pensionpoly.... 
You can now practice you skills in playing Pensionpoly by downloading the Pensionpoly board game here.

Unzip (no viruses) the download (2Mb) file, click on 'Monopoly.exe' and start playing Pensionpoly in a minute.

Playing Pensionpoly is like playing Monopoly, with the following main differences:

1. Cities are replaced by Asset Classes  
2. Streets are investment categories in a certain Asset Class
3. 'Buying Houses' is replaced by hiring (buying, appointing) Fund Managers (F-Managers); 
4. Five Fund managers make no Hotel, but a Fund Team (F-Team)
5. Chance cards are replaced by Asset (chance) cards
6. Community Chest cards are replaced by Liability (chance) cards

Pensionpoly is a nice example of what is called Gamification. More info about  this subject on Pension Gamification.....

Have fun playing Pensionpoly and don't forget to play normal Monopoly with this application as well !


Sources and related links
- Bewersdorff: Monopoly in the view of mathematics (2002)
- German: Monopoly im Blickwinkel der Mathematik
- Collins: Probabilities in the Game of Monopoly (2005)

- Create your own Monopoly at Parkeeerbonnen (Dutch)
- Direct download Monopoly from Parkeerbonnen
- Markov Chains and Monopoly (Scribd)

- 18-karat solid gold Monopoly set (Museum of American Finance)

Download
- - Download Pensionpoly (zip file)