Showing posts sorted by relevance for query calculator. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query calculator. Sort by date Show all posts

May 6, 2009

Chinese Actuary - Computer - Crisis

One of the interesting aspects of the Chinese language is that words are like little pictures, pictograms or logographs, the so called 'characters'. Moreover, some words are a combination, or (better) a superposition, of several of those characters.

So the meaning of a Chinese word can be deducted by interpretation of the pictograms and relating them. And, as the saying is "A picture is worth a thousand words", you don't need to be an actuary to calculate the enormous expression-power of the Chinese language. Every word is like a book of words and expresses not only the rational meaning but also the embodied feeling (mood) that goes along with the the formal meaning.

The power of the Chinese language can be illustrated by three simple examples, the Chinese words for Actuary, Computer and Crisis:

1. Actuary
The Chinese word for Actuary is :精算师

Pronunciation: jing suan shyr

The Chinese word Actuary consists of three characters:
  1. Jing, 精, means Skilled or Elite
  2. Suàn, 算, means 'to calculate' or 'to count'
  3. Shyr, 师, a suffix meaning 'a profession of' or a skilled or 'qualified practitioner of certain professions'

So, as a consequence, a stripped and therefore 'shortcoming' translation of the Chinese word for actuary would be: 'a skilled and qualified calculator'

Sources: Masteringmandarin, Translation, Wei Liu Dictionary,
Actuary Translated: A statistician who computes insurance risks and premiums.

2. Computer
The pictogram on the right means "computer" in Chinese. Actually, it consists of two characters that literally mean "Electric Brain", which the Chinese read as "computer".

However, as you may notice, the two main characters each exist of several sub-characters that also contribute and add meaning to the word 'Computer'.

Source, and more info at: Ebrain



3. Crisis
With the current credit crisis ( 信贷危机 xìndài wēijī) in mind, let's look at the Chinese word for 'crisis'. It consists of two characters




So in Chinese crisis means something like





Crisis = Danger + Opportunity

Let's apply this to daily business life.

No matter how great the danger in a crisis is, it also means a change of circumstances that creates space for new opportunities. It's an art to spot those opportunities when you're in the middle of a crisis.

But what if you're caught in a storm crisis:





Golden Rules Crisis Risk Management
In terms of risk management: If you're caught in the storm (trouble) and can't get out, don't try to. Try to get to the eye of the storm, where it's calm.

So when you're in the middle of a (credit) crisis :
  • Don't run
  • Set time still (Let time do the work)
  • Keep your head together
  • Wait for the opportunity, no matter how hard it is or how long it takes

Some more tips on how to behave in crisis situations you'll find on



APPROACHING A CONFLICT SITUATION

Sep 7, 2009

Swine Flu Counter update Sept 2009

Here you'll find the September 2009 update of the

Global Swine Flu Counter


Although there is still an increasing risk of underreporting, the counter has been renewed on basis of the latest available global reports as provided by Wikipedia/ECDC.

Swine Flu under Control?
The September 2009 developments suggest the Swine Flu development is under control, as the reported infections changed from a exponential growth recent months, to more linear growth in August 2009. In September the increase of infections was already declining.

New Model
The above developments are the main reason why data in the Swine Flu calculator have now been modelled by a logistic function.
Well considered curve fitting at ZunZun, showed a Gompertz function (with offset) resulted in a satisfying approximation :



Life actuaries will be familiar with good old Gompertz. The Gompertz equations are - by the way - also used to model Plant Desease Progres.

The number of death have now been modelled ruffly as 1.8% of the infected people a month earlier [Death=0.018*I(t-30)]

Results update
The results the new approximation show that the number of reported infections increases asymptotically towards a limit of about 323,000.

Correspondingly, the number of death, , increases to a limit of ruffly 6000.

All provided the actual controlled development continues and no new mutation of the H1N1 will develop in the next months.....

Risk
The risk of underreporting is not negligible . Modeling on basis of excluding the September data would result in a limit of 528,000 infects and about 9500 deaths. We'll just have to wait how H1N1 develops.....
But as becomes clear, the explosion of swine flue cases looks under control.

If necessary, the counter will be updated again on a on a regular basis. The latest data you'll find in this XLS spreadsheet.

Install Swine Flu Counter
How to implement this Swine Flu Counter on your web site?

  • Put the next HTML-script (without the outer quotes) just before the end of the body tag:' <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://sites.google.com/site/boooming/actuary/swine-flu-2009-update1.js"> </script>'

  • Put the next HTML-line (without the outer quotes) where you want the Swine Flu table to appear on your site :
    ' <div id="swineflutable"></div> '

  • Ready!